The Lagos retail sector currently features the largest retail development pipeline in the commercial real estate market representing 60% of the total stock that we track. However, only 19% of this is active and under construction, as most currently remain on hold due to the state of the market. 

With the exception of Ikeja City Mall, where vacancy levels have remained minimal, Lagos’ largest retail centres have experienced fluctuating vacancies levels over the past 5 years. Coupled with poor access to the crucial foreign exchange required for imports, a depreciating currency and increasingly unaffordable rents, the outlook for the sector remains negative. 

 

On a more positive note, neighbourhood malls have been a prominent theme when discussing what the future of sustainable retail in Nigeria might look like. Though there are exciting opportunities here, the space is increasingly challenging and competitive, as weak planning law enforcement means that residential conversions in high traffic regions will easily price out formal retail centres, no matter how affordable. 

Convenience retail malls that predominantly focus on the  anchor tenants and a handful of supporting line stores appear to be more sustainable, but at such a small lot size, it may be difficult for institutional capital to get behind it.

While we estimate the market to be oversupplied, some of the top retail projects in the pipeline  include: 

• Admiralty Mall, Lekki
• Banex Mall, Oniru
• Purple Lekki
• Ikoyi Plaza, Ikoyi
• Oasis Center, Ikeja
• Oasis Plaza, Ikoyi and
• Malvin Mall, Lekki.

The map below illustrates these projects, their sizes, developers and completion dates.

We love your feedback! Let us know what you think about these projects and how it will impact the market by sending an email to [email protected].