Since the early 2000s, Africa’s retail property sector has held the greatest allure when considering real estate investment driven by the now disputed ‘Africa rising’ narrative. The exciting promise of structuring retail markets where up to 98% of the activity was informal according to Deloitte, drove the capital raising and decision-making narratives for multiple institutional investors. Beyond Nigeria’s urban population, which is growing faster than the sub-Saharan Africa average of 4%, young demographic, where under 30s account for over 70% of the population and the said undersupply of commercial real estate, insufficient consideration was paid into earning capacities and fundamental macro-economic structures required to support these investments.

With over 25,000sqm of A-Grade retail space, Jabi Lake Mall has been the largest mall in Nigeria since it opened in 2015. At the height of bullish sentiment in 2015, just before the recession in 2016, plans for large shopping centres in Nigeria were launched, and many even commenced pre-leasing activity. The recession, among other fundamental market shifts that occurred in the years that followed, meant that many of these projects went on hold with full suspension or termination as the final destination. We have profiled 5 of these projects below:

5 Mega Shopping Malls in Nigeria that never happened

• • The Palms Extension: The plans have been suspended and the land for the expansion was sold in 2019.
  • Royal Gardens Mall: Plans for the centre were placed on hold by RMB Westport and the fund was subsequently taken over by Growthpoint Investec African Properties.
  • Twin Lakes Mall: The land for Twin Lakes Mall is currently being disposed of by Broll Nigeria.
  • Asokoro City Mall: Plans for the centre were placed on hold by RMB Westport and the fund was subsequently taken over by Growthpoint Investec African Properties
  • Maitama Mall: The mall is now on hold and Momentum will no longer be investing.

Outside the failure of the projects listed above to make it to completion, the general speed of deliveries and format of these deliveries has also changed. Between 2012 and 2016, the total average amount of retail space completed yearly was approximately 43,000sqm, from 2017 to date however, this figure has halved to c. 21,000sqm. What’s more, the average size has drastically fallen as retail centres such as Landmark Retail Boulevard, KAF Mall and Jara Mall are all sub 8,000sqm. 

While there are still a few centres in the pipeline including Abeokuta Mall in Ogun State or Tropicana Mall in Akwa Ibom State which is being redeveloped at a slower pace than originally planned, it is clear that the past few years has changed the retail market.