Not until 2026, according to our updated completions forecast. The fall in new homes completions through the Covid-19 pandemic has been well documented, but it is the longer term fall in starts that will have a more enduring impact.

The Affordable Homes Programme 2021-26 will be fundamental to driving volumes back up to pre-Covid levels towards the middle of the decade. First Homes and expanded delivery of Shared ownership will partially fill the gap left by Help to Buy. The remainder of that gap will be filled by Build to Rent, supported by strong demand from institutional investors.